Will the Scottish team finally break their New Zealand curse?
Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Where: Murrayfield Stadium, the Scottish capital When: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.
After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had finally been halted in a Test.
The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.
Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.
Recent History
Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.
During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.
Squad Updates
In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.
We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.
Key Absences
Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.
The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.
In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.
Replacement Concerns
Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.
And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Strategic Decisions
Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Historical Context
Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.
Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.
Statistical Analysis
For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.
Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.
What Scotland Needs
Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.
The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.
In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.
Final Analysis
Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.
With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.
Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.